خرید و دانلود نسخه کامل کتاب Positional Option Trading: An Advanced Guide – Original PDF

17INTRODUCTION You know nothing, Jon Snow. —Ygritte in A Storm of Swords by George R. R. Martin. He is not the only one. We are not in a time where reason is valued. In economics, the idea that marginal tax cuts pay for themselves is still advanced, even though all evidence says they don’t. Forty percent of Americans do not believe in evolution. Forty-five percent believe in ghosts. These beliefs are not based on any evidence. They are manifestations of another philosophy, whether it is economic, religious, or sociological. Usually these opinions reveal more about what people want to be true rather than any facts that they know. And many people know few facts anyway. Evidence is seen as irrelevant and arguments are won by those who shout loudest and have the best media skills. The idea that opinions are as valid as facts also affects trading and investing. Many investors rely on methods that are either unproven or even proven to be ineffective. The few of these investors who keep records will see that they are failing but rely on cognitive dissonance to continue to believe in their theories of how the markets behave. One would think that losing money would prompt reexamination, but the persistence of losers is remarkable. And even when some people give up or are forced out, there is always new money and new participants to replace the old. The only way to learn about anything is through the scientific method. This is an iterative procedure where theory is modified by evidence. Without evidence we are just in the realm of opinion. Most of what I present here is backed by evidence. There are also some opinions. My justification for this is that experience is also a real thing. But I’m no less prone to self-delusion than anyone else, so feel free to pay less attention to these ideas. Trading is fundamentally an exercise in managing ignorance. Our ability to judge whether a situation presents a good opportunity will always be based on only a simplified view of the world, and it is impossible to know the effects of the simplification.