خرید و دانلود نسخه کامل کتاب Systematic Trading: A unique new method for designing trading and investing systems – Original PDF

anuary 2009 IT WAS 23 JANUARY 2009 AND I WAS IN MY LONDON OFFICE. ALTHOUGH I had a desk overlooking the Thames I was usually too busy to appreciate the view. My day job was managing a portfolio of systematic trading strategies for a large hedge fund. But right now I was focusing on my own bank balance. Data was about to be released indicating how the UK economy had performed in the last three months of 2008. It would be bad news – the official confirmation that we were in recession – but nobody knew how bad. This didn’t mean extra work for me however, since a bank of computers would adjust our clients’ portfolios automatically when the news arrived. So I decided to devote some rare free time to trade my own money. With a stressful full-time job I was not a particularly active trader but very occasionally an opportunity came up that was too good to miss. This was one of them. In my research I found that historically when people’s fears were confirmed by terrible economic numbers was often the best time to buy; and this was potentially the worst news I’d seen in my lifetime. Careful analysis showed that the banks, hardest hit by the financial crisis, should rebound the most if things improved. I was particularly attracted to Barclays. I had traded for their investment bank a few years before and their balance sheet was in relatively good condition. But I also looked at investing in the other major UK banks. In all I was prepared to risk 10% of my portfolio on four banking stocks. Then the figures came out. They were worse than expected with GDP falling by 1.5%. Barclays dropped 15% almost immediately, taking it to the lowest level I had ever seen. I waited for the market to stabilise and prepared to trade. Then I hesitated. Everything had happened as expected – I should go ahead and buy. But what if this went wrong? What if the financial industry really was imploding, as everyone else seemed to think?