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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock PDF

نویسنده: Philip E. Tetlock

In a world filled with uncertainty, the ability to predict future events with accuracy is a rare and valuable skill. In Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Philip E. Tetlock delves into the practices of the world’s best forecasters—ordinary people with extraordinary analytical abilities. Based on decades of research and groundbreaking studies, this book uncovers how these “superforecasters” consistently outperform experts in predicting outcomes across various domains, from politics to economics.
Through engaging examples and practical strategies, Tetlock demonstrates how anyone can refine their critical thinking, embrace probabilistic reasoning, and enhance decision-making skills. Whether you’re a business leader, policy analyst, or simply curious about improving your foresight, Superforecasting provides actionable insights to navigate uncertainty and gain a competitive edge in an unpredictable world.